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On this page
- What an evaluator actually sees
- Compete level: the one thing that always shows
- Why simple play looks better
- Confidence is not declared, it is prepared
- The relative age effect: what a tryout measures without knowing it
- The work, and the horizon on which it pays
- Measure, so you can stop guessing
- Frequently asked questions
This article does not promise to get anyone onto a team. It describes what research and governing bodies actually say about the selection process, what is under the player’s control, and what is not. That distinction matters: much of the stress of a tryout comes from trying to control what cannot be controlled.
The through line is simple. A tryout is a short, noisy, subjective measurement. The answer is not to play harder to cut through that noise, it is to reduce your own share of it: fewer turnovers, steady compete level, and preparation that does not depend on the verdict.
What an evaluator actually sees
Hockey Canada recommends a minimum of three formal sessions: one skills session, one small-area games session, and one game. The second and third exist explicitly to judge competitiveness and hockey sense, not production. Add up the real time: a few hours, of which maybe thirty to forty minutes of ice per player.
Compare that to a forty-game season. An evaluation is not a deep examination, it is a low-resolution snapshot. That is not an organizational failure, it is the constraint of the exercise.
The research is blunt about how reliable these decisions are. In their review in Frontiers in Psychology, Kevin Till and Joseph Baker write that "the current evidence evaluating talent identification and selection accuracy suggests poor validity", and that it "decreases further when conducted at younger ages". In other words: the younger the player, the less a tryout predicts what they will become.
That conclusion is not an excuse, and it does not say tryouts are rigged. It says a cut is weak information, and that a player who builds a sporting identity on that verdict is building on sand.
The current evidence evaluating talent identification and selection accuracy suggests poor validity, which decreases further when conducted at younger ages.
Compete level: the one thing that always shows
On a forty-second shift, an evaluator cannot measure your neutral-zone reads or how you scan for support. They see three things: your skating, your engagement in battles, and whether you keep working once the puck has gone elsewhere. That is why compete level is the highest-return variable at a tryout: it is the only one that depends on neither the talent you happen to have that day nor the luck of the bounces.
Compete level is not running around. A player who stays on the ice for ninety seconds is a slow player for sixty of them, and that is what shows. Short shifts at full speed beat one long honest shift.
The detail evaluators notice most, and that almost nobody trains: the second effort. Losing a battle and coming back to contest it again changes how an entire shift reads. It is free, it requires no particular skill, and it is a decision.
Why simple play looks better
This is the least intuitive part of a tryout, and the one players understand last. Attempting the extra deke at your own blue line creates a scoring chance for the other team. Completing a three-metre pass creates nothing at all, but it never creates a chance against. Over a thirty-minute sample, the gap between the two approaches is not in the plays made, it is in the damage avoided.
An evaluator’s memory is asymmetric, and that is what makes the arithmetic brutal. A nice play is forgotten in fifteen minutes. A turnover that ends up in the net lasts until selection. A player who attempts five risky plays, completes three and misses two, will be remembered for the two.
Simple does not mean passive. Simple means picking the highest-percentage option and executing it fast. A one-touch breakout off the wall is a simple play and a demanding one. A blind clear is a lazy play. Evaluators tell the two apart easily.
This is exactly what Hockey Canada describes when it ties comfort to performance: the comfortable player executes without weighing options, the anxious player forces. Simple play is therefore not a tryout tactic, it is the visible symptom of a player who is not afraid.
Comfort is a large factor in the performance of a player during evaluations. Players who are uncomfortable tend to overthink or force decisions too quickly, whereas players who are comfortable tend to execute effectively and without having to think about their options.
Confidence is not declared, it is prepared
A tryout is, by construction, what sport psychology calls an ego-involving climate: comparison to others is the stated purpose of the exercise. A study by Gómez-López and colleagues, run with 479 handball players aged 16 and 17, measures what that climate produces: fear of failure acts as the relay, and it "positively mediates the association between an ego-involving climate with both cognitive and somatic anxiety, and negatively in terms of self-confidence".
You cannot change the climate of a tryout. You can change what the player leans on during those three days. That is where preparation counts, and not only physical preparation: an unchanged pregame routine, a goal stated in terms of behaviour rather than outcome, and a clear idea of what you came to show.
Hockey Canada gives the most useful formulation we found on this point: the player should acknowledge their anxiety, but not let it dictate their demeanour. Denying the stress does not work. Naming it, then returning to the basics, does.
The parent’s role here is larger than it looks. The ego-involving climate does not come only from the evaluators, a great deal of it comes from the car ride. A parent who talks about the rankings feeds exactly the mechanism the study measured; a parent who talks about what the player did well defuses it.
Fear of failure positively mediates the association between an ego-involving climate with both cognitive and somatic anxiety, and negatively in terms of self-confidence.
The relative age effect: what a tryout measures without knowing it
Since the foundational 1985 study by Barnsley, Thompson and Barnsley on Canadian hockey, the same finding keeps repeating: within an age group, players born early in the selection year are massively overrepresented. They are not better players, they are players a few months older, at an age where a few months are worth centimetres and kilos.
The most recent figures come from a Québec team. Jean Lemoyne, François Trudeau and Simon Grondin analyzed 7,399 players across fifteen junior and minor professional leagues, plus 812 NHL players. Among juniors, 33% were born in the first quarter against 16% in the fourth: twice the spots for the same presumed amount of talent.
The rest of their study is the part nobody tells families. The effect fades at the professional level, then reverses: late-born players, the ones who survived the filter, "contribute more offensively, and show better overall performances" in the NHL. The starting disadvantage selects for resilience.
For a player born in November or December, none of this changes this week’s tryout. It changes what a cut means, and it justifies measuring progress over years rather than over an October ranking.
The data
Birth quarter of junior and minor professional players
The oldest in their age group
Up to eleven months younger
Across 7,399 players from fifteen leagues, those born early in the selection year hold twice as many spots as those born late. The difference is not talent, it is age.
The work, and the horizon on which it pays
The idea that a summer of three hundred hours of power skating decides a career holds up poorly against the data. Peter Soberlak and Jean Côté reconstructed the paths of elite hockey players up to age twenty: before that age, they had accumulated more hours of free play than of structured training, and deliberate practice accounted for only about 18% of their sport hours between 13 and 15.
That is not an argument against work, it is an argument about its shape. Volume of play, in all its forms, builds the hockey sense that small-area game sessions are precisely there to evaluate. Targeted work exists to fix two or three specific things, not to improve everything at once.
Hence the only useful question in summer preparation: which two weaknesses cost the most, and how will I know in August that they have moved? A player who cannot answer the second half of that question is working blind.
Measure, so you can stop guessing
Everything above leads to the same place: impressions are a poor basis for decisions, for the evaluator as much as for the family. A player who has counted their turnovers knows whether they play simple. A player who has measured ice time and shifts knows whether their compete level holds up over three periods. Nobody knows this from memory.
That is the role RinkLog plays in this preparation, and it is worth describing without exaggeration. The app will not get anyone onto a team and replaces no evaluator. It gives the player a basis for comparison against themselves: forty games measured with the same definitions, percentile benchmarks against genuine comparables, and above all the ability to watch a weakness move between June and August.
The most useful way to use it is not handing a coach a report on tryout day. It is arriving knowing exactly what to show, and leaving knowing what to work on, whatever the result.
- Short shifts at full speed. Ninety seconds on the ice is sixty seconds of visible slowness.
- The second effort after every lost battle. Free, noticed, and entirely the player’s decision.
- The highest-percentage option, executed fast. A turnover at your own blue line costs more than a nice play returns.
- A pregame routine strictly identical to the season’s. It is the concrete counterweight to the tryout climate.
- A goal stated as behaviour, never as outcome: "I win my corner battles", not "I make the team".
- Two targeted weaknesses for the summer, measured in June and measured again in August. Not ten.
- In the car, talk about what was done well. Rankings feed exactly the mechanism that makes players play badly.
RinkLog measures and computes all of this automatically during your hockey, ball hockey and ringette games.
No credit card required. The free plan stays free.
Frequently asked questions
Should you show your stats to the evaluators?
Rarely, and never unprompted during the tryout. Evaluators judge what they see on the ice, and arriving with a file can read as parental pressure. The numbers mainly serve the player and the family, before the camp, to know what to work on. If they are asked for, a link-shared profile is more credible than a printed sheet.
My player was born in December. Is that really a disadvantage?
Statistically yes, and the gap is wide: 33% of junior players are born in the first quarter against 16% in the fourth. But the same study shows the effect reverses at the professional level, where late-born players produce more. The disadvantage is real at selection, not at development.
How long does an evaluator actually watch a player?
Hockey Canada recommends a minimum of three sessions: skills, small-area games, and a game. In individual ice time that often amounts to thirty or forty minutes spread over a few days. It is very little, and that is exactly why consistency matters more than brilliance.
Is it better to play safe or to try things?
Neither. The right instruction is not "take fewer risks", it is "take risks in the right place". Attempting a play in the offensive zone costs a possession; attempting the same play in front of your own net costs a scoring chance. The player who gets picked is the one who tells the two zones apart, not the one who plays small everywhere.
What if the player gets cut?
Treat the result for what it is: a short measurement that research shows predicts future performance poorly, especially in young athletes. Ask for specific feedback rather than a verdict, turn it into two measurable goals, and measure again in three months. That is the only follow-up that turns a cut into information.
References
Every number on this page comes from one of these sources. The links lead to the original text.
Hockey Canada
Getting ready for evaluations
Hockey Canada, ressources aux joueurs et aux parents
Source of the quotes on comfort and anxiety, and of the three-session framework (skills, small area, game).
Read itTill, K., et Baker, J. (2020)
Challenges and [Possible] Solutions to Optimizing Talent Identification and Development in Sport
Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 664
Literature review on the poor predictive validity of selection, and how it degrades at younger ages.
Read itLemoyne, J., Trudeau, F., et Grondin, S. (2023)
The Relative Age Effect in Ice Hockey: Analysis of Its Presence, Its Fading and of a Reversal Effect among Junior and Professional Leagues
Journal of Human Kinetics, 87, 119 à 131
7,399 players across fifteen junior and minor professional leagues, plus 812 NHL players. Source of the figures in the chart.
Read itBarnsley, R. H., Thompson, A. H., et Barnsley, P. E. (1985)
Hockey success and birthdate: The relative age effect
CAHPER Journal, 51(1), 23 à 28
The foundational study, run on Canadian hockey. Forty years later, the effect is still being measured.
Read itGómez-López, M., Chicau Borrego, C., Marques da Silva, C., Granero-Gallegos, A., et González-Hernández, J. (2020)
Effects of Motivational Climate on Fear of Failure and Anxiety in Teen Handball Players
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(2), 592
479 players aged 16 and 17. The ego-involving climate, which every tryout is, raises anxiety and lowers confidence.
Read itSoberlak, P., et Côté, J. (2003)
The Developmental Activities of Elite Ice Hockey Players
Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 15(1), 41 à 49
Before age twenty, elite players had accumulated more free play than structured training. Deliberate practice accounted for roughly 18% of hours between 13 and 15.
Read it
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